Verbal Submission: UFC 126 Preview

Time to preview UFC 126

 

Music to listen to: Vital Signs (live) by Rush

Had to pick the live version just for the hair.  The “rat tail” on Neal Peart is inspirational.

Let’s get straight into the matchups

Anderson Silva vs. Vitor Belfort: The two Brazilians will finally face off in a contest that has been in the making for several years, literally.

 

Silva is not only arguably the top pound-for-pound fighter in mixed martial arts today, a case can be made that he’s the best-ever in his weight class and has had as dominant of a run as any fighter in history.

 

Silva is on a 13-fight winning streak which includes seven consecutive title defenses.  He’s never lost in the UFC or any fight overall in five years.  Silva has even won two fights as a light heavyweight in the UFC.  The man has been dominant.

 

However, in Silva’s last fight against Chael Sonnen at UFC 11 in August 2010, the champion showed several vulnerabilities, particularly against wrestling techniques, including weak takedown defense.  Silva did show his resolve in landing a triangle armbar submission in the fifth round of the fight to earn the victory but the potential blueprint for defeating him was shown.

 

The question is whether Belfort can take advantage of this gameplan.  He’ll have several factors working against him.

 

First, Belfort has struggled with major injuries and hasn’t fought since UFC 103 in September of 2009.  That evening, Belfort showed supreme stand up skills in a first-round TKO of Rich Franklin, which actually brings up the second factor.

 

Belfort has tremendous hand techniques and may have the heaviest hands in the entire division, but Silva’s biggest strength is striking as well, but he does it better.

 

Unless Belfort has developed wrestling techniques, Silva can control the fight by using his mui thai skills, particularly his jab to keep Belfort away at a distance.  If the fight does go to the ground, Belfort may be physically stronger and try to grind out a decision but that will also leave him open for a submission and Silva’s jui jitsu is world class as well.

 

Prediction:  Silva by TKO round three

 

Forrest Griffin vs. Rich Franklin: This is a matchup of arguably the two most popular fighters in the UFC.

 

Both men are former champions, Griffin as a light heavyweight and Franklin as a middleweight.  Both men are coming off victories over below-average fighters, Griffin defeating Tito Ortiz and Franklin earning a win over Chuck Liddell.  Both men have lost to Anderson Silva.  The similarities are numerous.

 

What both men also need are victories to stay within reach of a title shot in arguably the deepest division in not only the UFC but all of MMA.

 

Its doubtful that either man will intentionally try to take down his opponent but if that does happen, both men have solid ground games.

 

The fight will most likely come down to the standup.  Griffin will have the reach advantage but isn’t known for knocking out his opponents.  In fact, his last TKO victory took place at UFC 55 against Elvis Sinosic in October 2005.  The rest of his victories have come via decision since then.  However, it must be noted that Griffin has won his last four decisions, so let the conspiracy theories begin if this contest goes to a decision.

 

While Franklin may be the smaller man in this fight, he carries his weight well at 205 despite spending the past few years as a middleweight the majority of the time.  For Franklin to earn the victory over Griffin, he will have to use his superior speed to mix up his standup techniques to confuse Griffin.

 

Prediction: Griffin by decision

 

Ryan Bader vs. Jon Jones : This is a matchup that may actually be a light heavyweight  title fight in two years.  The winner of this fight will be closer to getting a title shot for himself this time next year.

 

While Jones has become the “next big thing” in the UFC, Bader is someone who shouldn’t be overlooked.  Bader not only has excellent wrestling but has also showed improvement in his striking as well.  In his last fight against Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Bader not only showed his strong clinches, but the ability to overpower his opponent if needed.  Bader can easily knockout Jones.

 

However, for that to happen, Jones would have to let his guard down, which hasn’t happened yet in 12 fights.  Jones has come to represent the new age of MMA fighters who not only have the ability to wrestle but can strike just as well and throw in some judo throws as well.  With the assistance of training under Greg Jackson, Jones has refined his unorthodox techniques to earn two consecutive first-round TKOs against Brandon Vera and Vladimir Matyushenko in his last two fights against veterans.

 

If this becomes a wrestling match, Bader may have the slight advantage but while getting in range to deliver the takedowns, Jones will have the striking capabilities to capitalize on these openings.

 

Prediction: Jones by decision

 

Here are the rest of my predictions for the main card

 

Jake Ellenberger def. Carlos Rocha via decision

Miguel Torres def. Antonio Banuelos via 3rd round submission

Those are my thoughts, what are yours?