Beanball: 2011 MLB Season Predictions

Music to listen to: I Will Follow by U2

My post containing my Major League Baseball predictions is always an enjoyable one because I get to take chances and showoff my prognostication skills.

Here were my picks from last year: http://pourtoutpancakes.blogspot.com/2010/04/my-2010-mlb-predictions.html

I correctly predicted the Cy Young winners of both leagues, the AL MVP, got three out of four playoff teams in the National League and both of my “underrated” teams made the playoffs, including eventual AL champs, Texas.

I also predicted that Seattle was going to win the AL West, the third straight year I did that.  Needless to say, that won’t be happening again, or will it.

Once again, for those of you who don’t like to read my long and winding writing, here are my predictions in short form.  Remember to mock me and give me severe ridicule when I’m wrong about half of these in July.

AL East: Boston

AL Central: Minnesota

AL West: Texas

Wild Card: Yankees

Sneaky AL team: Oakland and White Sox

AL Champs: Boston

AL worst team: Kansas City

Overrated AL playoff caliber team: Oakland

Underrated AL playoff caliber team: Tampa

Underrated AL non-playoff caliber team: Baltimore

NL East: Atlanta

NL Central: Cincinnati

NL West: San Francisco

Wild Card: Philadelphia

Sneaky NL team: Colorado and Los Angeles

NL Champs: Philadelphia

NL worst team: Pittsburgh

Overrated NL playoff caliber team: Milwaukee

Underrated NL playoff caliber team: St. Louis

Underrated NL non-playoff caliber team: Florida

 

My World Series: Boston over Philadelphia

Predictable World Series: Boston vs. Philadelphia.

Alternative World Series: Yankees vs. San Francisco

Slightly out-there World Series: Texas vs. Atlanta

Risky World Series: Minnesota vs. Cincinnati

Not as out there as you would think World Series: Colorado vs. Oakland

Not happening this year World Series: Kansas City vs. Pittsburgh

AL MVP

1) Carl Crawford (Boston)  I think he will respond well to being in a major market and will get national exposure while producing career-highs.

2) Evan Longoria (Tampa)  He will lead a spunky Tampa bunch that will do better than most expect.

3)  Joe Mauer (Minnesota) He had an off year by his standards after signing the big contract but will return to form this year and lead Minnesota to another division crown.

Sneaky MVP candidates: Adrian Gonzalez (Boston) and Miguel Cabrera (Detroit).  I’m leery of  taking Gonzalez because of his surgically repaired shoulder, but I can easily see him taking this award if his health is clear.  Cabrera’s off-the-field issues will eliminate him from gaining major consideration from voters, but the numbers will probably be there.

AL Cy Young

1) CC Sabathia (Yankees) I think CC is going to be a horse for New York and finish in the top-five in wins, ERA and strikeouts, which will be enough for him to garner his second-ever Cy Young.

2) Felix Hernandez (Seattle) The Mariners may have actually regressed offensively this offseason but that won’t hurt Hernandez from posting major numbers.  The question is whether he finishes the season with the Mariners.

3) Jon Lester (Boston)  The Red Sox are going to have the top record in the league and one of their pitchers will get voting love.

Sneaky Cy Young candidates: Trevor Cahill (Oakland) and Justin Verlander (Detroit).  One of Oakland’s young arms will be considered for this award and I expect Cahill to emerge from that group.  Verlander is a perennial candidate for this award and he may actually lead the Tigers to the division crown which will increase his chances of winning.

NL MVP

1) Brian McCann (Atlanta) When he leads the Braves to a “surprise” division win, he will be the catalyst.  Joey Votto won the award last year from relative obscurity and the same will happen for McCann.

2) Albert Pujols (St. Louis) The contract won’t be an issue for him.

3) Ryan Braun (Milwaukee) He’s entering the prime of his career and will outshine his own teammate Prince Fielder.

Sneaky MVP candidates: Troy Tulowitzki (Colorado) If he can stay healthy the entire season, he may have the best overall statistics of any non-first baseman and outfielder in all of baseball.

NL Cy Young

1)  Roy Halliday (Philadelphia) I’m not picking against Doc.  He was my pick last year and won.  He will do the same this season.

2)  Tommy Hanson (Atlanta) I think he will finally have the breakout season of 18 wins, 200+ strikeouts, top-five league ERA, etc.

3) Tim Lincecum (San Francisco) The two things holding him back are the effects of the long post season may have on his arm this year or the bounce back effect.  Second, he started last year off slow by his standards and I expect the same to happen this season, leaving the door open for Halliday.

Sneaky Cy Young candidates: Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles) and Ubaldo Jimenez (Colorado).  If either the Dodgers or Rockies find a way to win the West, either one of these pitchers may get the award.

 

Division breakdowns:

AL East

1) Boston: May be the only team to win 100 games in all of baseball but there are some red flags.  First, the diminishing skills of Josh Beckett has to be a concern.  Also, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis are coming off major injuries last year.  Outside of that, they have the best lineup in the league, arguably the top pitching staff and clearly the best bullpen.

2) New York: The Yankees have two problems.  First, they have aging players such as Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera and a few others who can go south quickly this season.  I’m betting against it but it has to be said.  Second, the starting pitching is questionable at best after Sabathia and Phil Hughes.

3) Tampa: The Rays did lose a lot this offseason but are still good enough to get 80+ wins.  I’m not entirely bullish on Jonny Damon and Manny Ramirez but think that them along with Longoria and David Price leading the starting rotation will give the Rays a decent season.

4) Baltimore:  I REALLY want the Charm City to have a good baseball team because that’s a good sports town that would support a solid Orioles team.  I think the offense will be good but the young arms are just ONE year away from challenging for the division.  However, I LOVE that Buck Showalter is talking crap about the Yankees and Red Sox.  Its about time someone outside of Tampa in that division stood up to those big teams.

5)  Toronto: I’m interested to see if Jose Bautista can repeat last season’s performance and Kyle Drabek finally getting a chance to be in an MLB rotation full-time for an entire season.

 

AL Central

1) Minnesota:  I think Francisco Liriano may have a Cy Young-caliber team and expect Justin Morneau to have a bigger contribution this season as well.  I also think that they have the best overall rotation in the division which will win the Twins the division but probably cost them in the playoffs.

2) White Sox: They were one Jake Peavy rehabbed shoulder away from being my pick in the division.

3) Detroit: The Tigers have a top-five league pitcher in Justin Verlander, MVP candidate Miguel Cabrara and not much else.  Still may be good enough to win this division if they catch some breaks.

4) Cleveland:  The Indians have a young starting rotation with potential led by Fausto Carmona  but with Grady Sizemore being out for several months to start the season, there isn’t much else to be optimistic about.  At least Cleveland isnt…

5) Kansas City: The “key” additions are  Jeff Francoeur, Lorenzo Cain and Melky Cabrara.  The main loss is Zach Grinke.  At least they have good Bar-be-que in the city and the Chiefs won the AFC West this past season…

 

AL West

1) Texas: I know that losing Cliff Lee and Vlad Guerrero is tough but I have faith that the offense will still be productive and the continued maturity of starting pitchers C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis will carry the Rangers to the division crown.  I would be more confident if Texas wasn’t set of keeping Nefi Perez as the closer.  However, he will be an excellent reliever as well.

2)  Oakland:  I’ve learned from my terrible predictions of Seattle over the years to not pick a squad that lacks offense to win a division.  I’m also leery of taking a team with so many young starting pitchers who aren’t proven.

3)  Anaheim:  I still refuse to call the Angels by their full name.  They didn’t add any players of note, being rejected by Carl Crawford and Adrian Beltre in the offseason.

4)  Seattle:  I’m highly doubtful that Felix Hernandez is going to be a Mariner for the entire season, which will leave Seattle with Ichiro and not much else.

 

NL East

1) Atlanta:  I think that having a new manager will be a good thing for the Braves.  Bobby Cox was an excellent manager for Atlanta but his time to leave had come.  I really like the starting rotation and the power arms in the bullpen.  The only problem may be on offense where runs may be at a premium.  However, I’m taking a chance and going with Atlanta to win the division.

2)  Philadelphia:  If everyone was healthy, the Phillies would be the runaway winners of the division and overall favorites in the National League.  However, Chase Utley is hurt, Brad Lidge will be out at least a month and I can see the older players on this squad breaking down.  However, with that starting rotation, the playoffs are almost a guarantee.

3) Florida:  This isn’t the year for the Marlins to make their surprise playoff appearance but they have a good staring rotation led by Cy Young candidate Josh Johnson.  The offense may be fine with Hanley Ramirez leading the charge along with young slugger Mike Stanton.

4) New York Mets:  The past two seasons have been bad for the Mets but this may be the bottoming out of the franchise overall this season.  Johan Santana is out indefinitely with a rebuilt shoulder and the starting rotation is a mess.  The outfield is in flux and Carlos Beltran is already struggling with bad knees in spring training.  After having arguably the best left side of the infield in all of baseball a few seasons ago, Jose Reyes is in a contract year and David Wright hasn’t hit for consistent power since the Mets move to Citi Field two seasons ago.  Other than that, things are looking up for the Mets if you can also forget that the team is in severe financial trouble and cutting payroll.

5)  Washington: If the Nationals are smart, they just shut down Stephen Strasburg from reaching the majors this season, let him get some rehab starts in the minor leagues and open the 2012 season with him and Bryce Harper in your starting lineup.  I also don’t think Jayson Werth is going to be a complete disaster in Washington.  Still not worth that contract but solid season for him.

 

NL Central

1) Cincinnati:  The Reds almost win this division by default.  The other teams in the division have more issues than the Reds who return the reigning league MVP in Joey Votto, their top four starters from last season.  Plus you add the Aroldis Chapman factor and you’re looking at the repeat division champs.

2)  Milwaukee: I can see why some analysts are picking the Brewers to win the division.  They added former Cy Young winner Zack Grinke and Shaun Marcum to the staring rotation that already includes a top pitcher in Yovani Gallardo.  Ryan Braum is back and a prime example of someone possibly having a career season in a contract year, Prince Fielder.  However, I like the Reds’ pitching just a little bit more.

3)  St. Louis:  Losing Adam Wainwright for the season hurts but Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan always seems to find a way for the staff to be decent.  Chris Carpenter is still a top-flight pitcher.  My problem is the offense outside of Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday.  Where will the runs come from?

4)  Chicago Cubs:  I like the top three starting pitchers in Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza and Carlos Zambrano.  Dislike everything else, even though Carlos Pena starting at first base in a hitters park may be fun to watch.

5)  Houston:  Until the ownership situation is solved, the Astros will be stuck in neutral.  They have some good players in starting pitchers Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers but not much else.

6)  Pittsburgh:  I’ll be excited to follow the career track of former Vanderbilt Commodore Pedro Alvarez with the Pirates.  That is all.

 

NL West

1) San Francisco:  Best starting rotation in league outside of Philadelphia, improved offense from Pablo Sandoval, rookie of the year candidate Brandon Belt, future MVP Buster Posey up for an entire season and there’s a lot to like with the Giants this year.  The biggest concern is Brian Wilson starting the year on the DL, weakening the bullpen and the increased injury potential with all of those starting pitchers the year after a long playoff run.

2)  Colorado: Love Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez, Ubaldo Jiminez and not much else.

3)  Los Angeles:  The Dodgers need Matt Kemp to find his 2009 form for them to compete in the West.  It would also help to get better starting pitching outside of Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley.

4) San Diego Padres:  They’re going to pitch well, catch the ball and rely on their bullpen to shutdown a bunch of 3-2 contests.  The problem is that San Diego was offensively challenged last year WITH Adrian Gonzalez.  Now he’s gone to Boston.

5)  Arizona Diamondbacks:  New manager, lack of offense, weak pitching…

Those are my thoughts.  What are yours?