Verbal Submission: UFC 130 Preview

Time to preview UFC 130

 

Music to listen to:  Late Nite Tip by Three 6 Mafia

If you don’t know why this song was chosen, shame on you.

Quinton “Rampage” Jackson vs. Matt Hamill:  The simple analysis of this would be to view this contest as the striker vs. the wrestler but its deeper than that.

For Jackson, this match should mark his realization that if he’s ever going to regain the UFC light heavyweight title, this has to be the starting  point.  He’s even indicated this in his new plan to retire at 35 years old and he’s currently 32.  If he’s in top condition, Jackson should use his strong standup skills, takedown defense and overall brawling style to overwhelm Hamill.

Hamill has to use his wrestling skills to gain takedowns to frustrate Jackson.  The last two men to defeat Jackson, Rashad Evans and Forrest Griffin, used a diverse striking attack, especially leg kicks for Griffin, to confuse Jackson.   While Hamill has improved his striking tremendously since he entered the UFC and even has a highlight reel-worthy head kick knockout to Mark Muniz from UFC 96, it would be best for the superior grappler to keep the majority of the fight off the feet.

As for the fight itself, I think Hamill is going to try to set up takedowns but won’t show anything that Rampage hasn’t seen before.  We saw a more patient Rampage in his last fight, a victory over Lyota Machida at UFC 123.  He showed off his improved technical striking and didn’t just go for the big punch.

Prediction: Jackson by decision

Frank Mir vs.Roy Nelson:  The battle of Las Vegas can once again be looked at as a grappler vs. striker matchup but these guys share more than an official hometown.

Both men have excellent ground games and are just as likely to submit an opponent for a victory as any other heavyweights in the division.

Mir has worked hard to improve his stand up and even has knockout victories over Cro Cop and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira.  However, it would probably be wise to stay away from the power striking because he would be the underdog in that department.

Nelson may be looked at as weak because of his physical physique, which included a large protruding belly, and hair style, but he’s a world-class fighter.  Even in his loss to Junior Dos Santos at UFC 117, Nelson showed the chin, stamina and skills to be a top-five UFC heavyweight.

I think that Nelson is the slightly better striker and better grappler.  Mir has some of the slickest submissions in all of MMA so Nelson should be ready for that.  However, Nelson will be aggressive and use his superior clinching to earn the victory.

Prediction: Nelson by TKO

Rick Story vs. Thiago Alves:  This is my pick for fight of the night because the styles are different but work well together.

Story will use the gameplan that wrestlers have been using in MMA for decades.  We’re going to see him apply pressure, use offensive takedowns and place clinches on Alves to tire out the Brazilian.  This worked for Jon Fitch and Georges St. Pierre, the last two men to defeat Alves so expect to see that.

Alves has always been one of the more dynamic strikers in the welterweight division, mixing kicks, knees and heavy hands to overwhelm opponents in the stand up.  He also possesses a decent takedown defense, which will definitely be used in this fight.

If we’re to believe that Alves has solved his weight-cutting issues and will be at full strength, this will be a major advantage for him because he will probably enter the cage at around 190 pounds, having a decisive strength advantage in the fight.

Prediction: Alves by decision

Here are my other predictions:

Stefan Struve def. Travis Browne via decision

Brian Stann def.Jorge Santiago via TKO

Miguel Torres def. Demetrious Johnson via TKO

Tim Boetsch def. Kendall Grove via decision

Those are my thoughts.  What are yours?