Passing the Guard: UFC 132 Preview

Music to listen to: The Great Curve (live) by The Talking Heads

UFC 132 will mark some significant landmarks and crossroads for Zuffa and for the fighters.  You have a bantamweight title fight headlining a PPV, the first time I can remember seeing this happen for the UFC.  The challenger has double the popularity than the champion in the fight and actually beat the challenger four years ago.  The co-main event features arguably one of the top-ten fighters of all-time, certainly one of the most popular,  against an opponent that is trying to emulate his career step-by-step (outside of winning titles…yet).  The third fight on the docket has a legitimate legend of the sport against an up-and-comer who will eventually fight for the championship.  Let us look closer at the card:

Dominick Cruz vs. Urijah Faber:  My first thought on this fight is that the public is going to assume that since Faber is the more known combatant, defeated Cruz four years ago and has won his last two fights at bantamweight, that he will dominated Cruz on Saturday.

Here’s the case for Cruz.  Since that loss to Faber in 2007, the only blemish in Cruz’s career, he has been the dominant combatant in the bantamweight division, earning three impressive victories over Brian Bowles, Joseph Benavidez and Scott Jorgensen in 2010 alone.  Cruz’s combination of diverse standup techniques and excellent wrestling, particularly in takedown defense, has made him one of the more elusive fighters in his division.

Faber was the face of the WEC for many years and during his campaign for that promotion, he earned that victory over Cruz.  He ran into some roadblocks in the 145-pound division (mainly Jose Aldo) and has made the move to bantamweight, where he holds a 2-0 record with wins over Takeya Mizugaki and Eddie Wineland.

As for this upcoming fight, Faber will hold the strength advantage and should be able to get some solid takedowns in this fight.  However, Cruz’s elusiveness makes him difficult to grab.  You will probably see Cruz try to keep the fight on his feet as much as possible, especially since his standup is slightly better than Faber’s and he’ll want to avoid sloppy exchanges, which Faber excels at.

In the end, this fight will probably go the distance and a draw wouldn’t shock me.  However, I’m predicting a repeat of the first fight.

Prediction: Faber by decision

Wanderlei Silva vs. Chris Leben:  I put on Twitter that I would bet my house that the Kongo/Pat Berry fight last Sunday wouldn’t make it three rounds.  While my house was safe for another week, I would almost be willing to make the same declaration for this contest.

We know that both men will be aggressive, try to keep the fight standing and try to slug out a win.

For Silva, this will mark his second fight as a UFC middleweight.  The division is devoid of legitimate contenders who haven’t fought Anderson Silva at least once so a victory on Saturday can actually be a step towards a battle of Silvas who really don’t like each other in 2012.

Silva hasn’t been able to regain the form that made him an all-timer back in Pride but he lost a close decision to Rich Franklin in June 2009 at 199 pounds (I’m considering this “middleweight” to avoid technicalities) and earned a decision win over Michael Bisping in February.

Leben won three fights in 2010, putting him on the short list of fighter of that year.  However, he was humbled in January in a decisive loss to Brian Stann, slightly altering the momentum gained by the outstanding  2010.

The fight will honestly come down to who can take the most punishment and sustain an effective offense in the process.  One thing to consider is that Silva hasn’t fought in 17 months and is coming off knee surgery.

Prediction:  Silva by third-round TKO 

Tito Ortiz vs. Ryan Bader:  Ortiz is a legendary fighter who has seen better days and he’s fighting a guy in Bader who does everything he does, just better.

Bader is the better wrestler, better boxer and will probably be better in the clinch.  Despite losing to current light heavyweight champion Jon Jones in February, Bader is still part of the future of the division while Ortiz is part of the past.

Prediction: Bader by second-round TKO

Carlos Condit vs. Dong Hyun Kim:  Its the classic styles clash matchup between the fighter who uses standup, specifically kickboxing, for offense (Condit) against the grappler who uses Judo as his technique of choice (Kim).

This is going to be a close fight because Condit will get some strong punches in and put together nice combinations while Kim will get at least two of his patented Judo throws in the contest.  I think the fight will stay on the feet more than the ground.

Prediction: Condit by decision

Here’s the rest of my predictions for the night:

Dennis Silver def .Matt Wiman by decision

Melvin Guillard def. Shane Roller by decision

George Sotiropoulos def. Rafael dos Anjos by second-round submission

Takeya Mizugaki def. Brian Bowles via decision

Aaron Simpson def. Brad Tavares via decision

Those are my thoughts, what are yours?