Passing the Guard: UFC 136 Preview

Music to listen to: West Coast by the Memorials

Frankie Edgar vs. Grey Maynard:  The one thing that I can guarantee about this fight is that it will go to a decision.  Neither man has a decisive technique or advantage over his opponent such as boxing or wrestling that makes you believe that a domination from that part of MMA would lead to a victory.

For Maynard to win the fight, he needs to use his strength advantage and not just rely on getting takedowns for five rounds to eek out a decision.  He should have seen how that strategy worked out in UFC 125.  Maynard dominated the first round and arguably won it 10-8.  However, after that exchange, Edgar was able to keep his distance and take advantage of his speed.  Maynard needs to be more aggressive, push forward more often and use the cage to his advantage to wear out Edgar.

Edgar has to continue to use the formula he’s had for the past few fights of using his speed, particularly fast hands, to confuse Maynard in the middle of the Octagon.  He knows that Maynard is stronger and will probably try to employ more wrestling in this fight.

I can see either man winning this fight but I think that after going eight rounds with Edgar, Maynard finally realizes that he’s not going to win a decision against the champion in 2011 using the same formula he’s been using for the past few years, which is pretty much the “lay and pray” style that most fans don’t approve of viewing.   Maynard uses the gameplan I wrote above to earn a close victory.

Prediction:  Maynard by decision

Jose Aldo vs. Kenny Florian:  I think that Florian is in for a long night for several reasons.  First, anytime you have someone cutting weight for only the second time in a weight class and has to face someone as dominant as Aldo is a risky bet.  Next, Florian usually enjoys the speed advantage over his opponents but will not have this luxury against the champion.

From that previous paragraph, it looks like Aldo will win in a first-round TKO.  However, Florian does have the jiu-jitsu skills to make this a competent challenge.  If he can find a way to keep the fight on the ground, a submission can happen.

However, Aldo’s takedown defense is excellent and if superior wrestlers such as Urijah Faber and Mike Thomas Brown weren’t able to do much offense on the ground against the Brazilian, the challenger will have more trouble.

Aldo does have the tendency to want to keep fights on their feet and Florian can always use the fight plan that Mark Hominick used against the champion, outworking Aldo in the latter stages of the fight via constant pressure.

Prediction:  Aldo by 4^th round TKO

Chael Sonnen vs. Brian Stann:  These two men have become the most marketable middleweights in the UFC not named Anderson Silva.  We all know about Stann’s military background, which would be a promoter’s dream to sell against Silva in a title bout in 2012.  We also know about Sonnen’s verbal insults to Silva and ultimate Fight of the Year candidate matchup with the champ several months ago.

For this fight, Sonnen will try to use his wrestling advantage to get Stann on the ground and outwork him with ground and pound.  Sonnen does struggle with submission defense but Stann doesn’t pose a big threat in that department.

Stann’s best opportunity would be to use his strong standup skills and try to score the knockout.  However, Sonnen hasn’t been stopped by knockout or TKO in a fight since a loss to Terry Martin in December 2004.

Prediction:  Sonnen by decision

Here are my other predictions:

Melvin Guillard def. Joe Lauzon via 2^nd round stoppage

Nam Phen def. Leonard Garcia via decision

Anthony Pettis def. Jeremy Stephens via decision

Those are my thoughts, what are yours?