Verbal Submission: UFC 137 Preview

 

Music to listen to: Guitar solo by Duane Allman

 

 

You can never go wrong with some Allman Brothers music. I’ll always respect a band that uses two drummers, especially if one of them is Black. Much love.

 

Let’s preview a UFC card…

 

Nick Diaz vs. B.J. Penn: Full disclosure, I’m a huge fan of both guys. Penn is the reason that I follow MMA today and Diaz and the entire Cesar Gracie clan (Jake Shields, Nate Diaz, Gil Melendez, etc.) have been favorites of mine for years. When I saw this matchup, I was disappointed that I would have to pick one of these guys but that’s the business of MMA.

 

I think that the weight advantage is going to be an issue for Penn but not in the way that you think. Penn’s takedown defense ability, outstanding ground game and boxing makes him one of the best lightweights ever in MMA. However, when Penn fights at welterweight, which is what this fight will be in, the extra weight effects his biggest foe, conditioning. We saw this happen in Penn’s last fight against Jon Fitch, where the Hawaiian won the first two rounds convincingly but struggled tremendously in the third round, ultimately settling for a draw.

 

Diaz is one of the best conditioned fighters in MMA and has become one of the best standup fighters in the entire sport through his seasoning at Strikeforce. Diaz is also an excellent ground fighter as well.

 

For Penn to win this fight, he needs to mix up his attack and not rely on outboxing Diaz because that would be a losing strategy. Penn has a slight advantage on the ground but Diaz is tremendously crafty in this aspect of MMA and has seen every trick in the book.

 

Diaz’s biggest advantage besides boxing may actually be wrestling but he rarely uses it in fights and prefers to out-strike his opponents.

 

Prediction: Diaz by decision

 

Cheick Kongo vs. Matt Mitrione: This fight is an excellent example of an up and coming fighter (Mitrione) facing a respected gate keeper (Kongo).

 

We already know that we’re going to see from Kongo, which is kickboxing using his long reach and not even attempting to take the fight to the ground. Mitrione has shown improvement in the UFC, particularly his boxing. He’s still a relative novice on the ground by MMA standards but Mitrione won’t have to worry about that against Kongo.

 

Prediction: Mitrione by decision

 

Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic vs. Roy Nelson: If you’re a long time MMA fan, especially when you can actually remember when Pride Fighting Championship was fully in business, seeing Cro Cop’s struggles in his last few fights has been difficult to watch. Just seeing him use his kickboxing and devastating kicks to knock out many of his opponents made Cro Cop one of the most respected and popular fighters in MMA.

 

However, its 2011 and he’s now up against Nelson who is trying to move up the heavyweight ladder himself and gain a title shot. If Nelson comes into shape for a fight, there isn’t a reason that he can’t be a top-five fighter in the division. However, we’ve seen Nelson come into fights out of shape, especially in his last fight against Frank Mir, and that has limited his career.

 

Nelson should be motivated to get a win and would be wise to avoid standing too long with Cro Cop because he still can knock out anyone in the division. I think you will see Nelson use his ground skills and surprisingly good jiu jitsu skills to get the victory.

 

Prediction: Nelson by third round submission

 

Here are my other predictions:

 

Hatsu Hioki def. George Roop via second round TKO

 

Scott Jorgensen def. Jeff Curran by decision