Passing the Guard: UFC 139 Preview

Music to listen to: Closer by Nine Inch Nails

Time to preview UFC 139…

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua vs. Dan Henderson: This matchup pits two veterans, former world champions and men who surprisingly haven’t faced each other. Since the purchase of Pride by Zuffa years ago, fans have been able to see nearly every matchup between currently active competitors that wasn’t possible years ago. We saw Chuck Liddell fight Wanderlei Silva, Randy Couture against Big Nog, etc. This may be the last one of these contests.

Henderson has experienced a revival of his career with three straight victories after his disappointing loss to Jake Shields at Strikeforce: Nashville in April 2010. Since then, he has won the Strikeforce light heavyweight title and defeated MMA legend Fedor Emelianenko as a heavyweight. Now he returns to the UFC to face Rua. Henderson has had an incredible career from being an Olympic wrestler to starting one of the first known MMA camps in Team Quest and winning gold in two major promotions; however, if he beats Rua, he may solidify his place in the top-ten all-time MMA fighters and even gain another UFC title in the process.

Rua looks to have successfully recovered from another major knee surgery when he dominated Forrest Griffin at UFC 134. Even after being dominated by Jon Jones and losing his UFC light heavyweight title, Rua remains a top-five fighter in the division and arguably one or two victories away from gaining another chance to regain his belt.

Rua is the quicker striker but Henderson has heavier hands, especially his infamous right hand. The Brazilian does an excellent job of incorporating kicks into his striking as well which not only damages the opponent, but also gives Rua a solid distance to take advantage of a solid reach advantage with the hands. Henderson also enjoys the wrestling advantage but has forgone using this technique for most of his recent fights, relying instead on striking which is still strong as well. Rua has an underrated ground game that may be used but it would require him to take down Henderson who has excellent takedown defense.

This is also a five-round main event which means stamina may play a part in the result.

Prediction: Henderson via TKO 3^rd round

Wanderlei Silva vs. Cung Le: This is a matchup that may be a retirement contest for both opponents, but for different reasons.

Silva’s career is well documented and legendary but three losses in his last four contests has been damaging. His last loss, a disappointing knockout to Chris Leban at UFC 132 in July, shows a fighter who is certainly at the end of his run as an above-average fighter. It happened to Liddell, Fedor, B.J. Penn and countless others in MMA.

Le has been busy working on a thriving acting career and hasn’t fought in 17 months. Le had always had a limited skill set in MMA (granted, the one strength, striking, is world-class) and the long layoff isn’t going to help this issue.

I don’t expect to see many takedowns or submission attempts in this contest. It will be a slugfest with the strongest man standing as the winner.

Prediction: Silva by knockout 2^nd round

Here are the rest of my predictions:

Urijah Faber def. Brian Bowles via decision

Martin Kampmann def. Rick Story via TKO

Kyle Kingsbury def. Stephan Bonnar via decision