Music to listen to: Renegades of Funk by Rage Against the Machine
Heard an interview with Tom Morello of Rage with Aisha Tyler on her pod cast and was reminded me how much I enjoyed the band years ago and starting looking back. Enjoy.
Jon Jones vs. Lyoto Machida: Tonight’s battle for the light heavyweight title may serve as a coronation for the top fighter in all of 2011, Jon Jones. Before the year started, Jones was looked at as a contender who may earn his first title shot early in 2012 after some seasoning during this calendar year. However, after an impressive victory over Ryan Bader in February, Jones was given the shot to fight for the title against Shogun Rua in March after Rashad Evans was forced out due to injury. The rest has been historic for Jones as he’s defeated Rua in March for the crown and defended the belt against Quinton Jackson in September. Jones now seeks to be the first man to defend the light heavyweight crown more than once since Chuck Liddell.
For Machida, the former champion was once seen in the same light that Jones currently basks in. When Machida himself defeated Evans for the title in May 2009, it was looked as an evolutionary moment in mixed martial arts when a fighter using a karate technique would dominate the sport and force more combatants to incorporate this skill into their fighting. However, after a lackluster defense of the title to Rua in October of that year and eventually two consecutive losses to Rua and Jackson, Machida looked to be in a mini-crossroads in his career. However, an impressive victory over Randy Couture in April has given him a shot to reclaim the title against Jones.
Both fighters have unique fighting styles that make it difficult to game plan against the other one. Jones’ reach advantages, usage of kicks, various striking techniques such as leg kicks and spinning elbows make him a physically daunting opponent to face. Furthermore, Jones’ wrestling background gives him experience using leverage to control action on the ground. Machida uses a more elusive style of defense and counter striking to not only be one of the most difficult fighters to get contact against but also one of the more accurate strikers in all of MMA because of the imbalance caused on the defense of his opponent.
The problem for Machida is that the one thing that he enjoys most in a fight, distance, is Jones’ strength as well. Machida may actually have to be assertive to actually gain the distance he likes to fight in and that will allow Jones to use long jabs and leg kicks to weaken Machida.
We’ll see a tentative first round from both fighters as each of them likes to establish their distance and timing during the start of their bouts. However, when Machida decides to become more aggressive, which will have to happen in this fight for him to win, Jones will use his physical advantages to possibly make this a one-sided stand up fight.
The best chance for Machida to win may be to get the fight on the ground and use the black belt jiu jitsu skills to wear down Jones and maybe sneak in a submission.
Prediction: Jones by 4th round TKO
Frank Mir vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira: This is a rematch of one of the more interesting MMA fights to take place in the last five years. Rodrigo was the UFC heavyweight champion when both of these men fought for the first time in December 2008. Mir was the underdog and expected to be dominated in the stand up portion of the fight due to Rodrigo’s excellent boxing skills. However, Mir switched up the perceptions and dominated Rodrigo standing and scored a decisive TKO victory.
This time, both men have won and lost against different opponents but now see themselves at a crossroads in their careers. Mir needs another victory over Rodrigo to work his way up the division for another shot at the title. Rodrigo may be near potential retirement if he doesn’t look good in this fight.
I think we’ll see a similar affair as the first fight with Mir wanting to keep the fight standing and hopefully seeing Rodrigo’s slow reflexes as an advantage.
Similar to Machida, Rodrigo’s best strategy may be to get the fight on the ground. However, both men are on the short list of best ground fighters ever in the heavyweight division so the advantages may be negated in this portion of the fight.
Prediction: Mir by decision
Tito Ortiz vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira: This may be the last dream matchup that hasn’t happened between a predominant UFC fighter (Ortiz) and a former PRIDE fighter (Rogerio). Ortiz was known as a fighter who was automatic to get a takedown on command and use punches to wear down his opponents over the years. However, age and the natural breakdown of the body has limited these skills. Ortiz is still a difficult fighter to defeat and when facing a fighter who doesn’t have better athletic skills then him can have a decent chance to pull out a victory.
Rogerio is coming off two consecutive losses to Ryan Bader and Phil Davis who used their athleticism and physical advantages to earn victories. He won’t have to worry about these issues against Ortiz.
Both men have been in every situation possible so nothing should surprise them. Ortiz would be best to implement a wrestling strategy by gaining the clinch early and taking down Rogerio constantly while roughing him up. Rogerio has the clear advantage in the standup and actually has a better guard than Ortiz if the fight end up on the ground.
Prediction: Rogerio by decision
Those are my thoughts, what are yours?
The Sports Inquirer 
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