Backdoor Cut: 2011-12 NBA Season Predictions

Music to listen to: Cicatriz (live from Maida Vale) by The Mars Volta

　

As tradition with my predictions, I’ll have the Cliffnotes version of them first for those of you who just want to see them and then some in-depth analysis afterwards.

Doing NBA previews are usually my favorite types of posts to do and I’ve done individual previews for each team in the past. However, with the late ending of the lockout and player movement, it was hard to get an entire view of the squads until now. Even as I’m writing this post, the Nets just traded for Mehmet Okur because Brooke Lopez broke his foot, which player movement is constantly in motion.

Here are the picks:

Atlantic: New York, Boston, Philadelphia, New Jersey, Toronto

Central: Chicago, Indiana, Milwaukee, Detroit, Cleveland

Southeast: Miami, Orlando, Washington, Atlanta, Charlotte

Northwest: Oklahoma City, Portland, Denver, Utah, Minnesota

Pacific: Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers, Sacramento, Golden State, Phoenix,

Southwest: Dallas, Memphis, San Antonio, Houston, New Orleans

Playoff seedings:

East

1) Miami

2) Chicago

3) New York

4) Boston

5) Indiana

6) Orlando

7) Philadelphia

8) Washington

East playoff predictions: Miami over Washington, Chicago over Philadelphia, New York over Indiana, Boston over Miami, Miami over Boston, Chicago over New York, Miami over Chicago

West

1) Oklahoma City

2) Dallas

3) LA Clippers

4) LA Lakers

5) Portland

6) Memphis

7) San Antonio

8) Denver

West playoff predictions: OKC over Denver, Dallas over San Antonio, Memphis over LA Clippers, LA Lakers over Portland, OKC over LA Lakers, Dallas over Memphis, OKC over Dallas

NBA Finals prediction: Miami over Oklahoma City

MVP:

1) Kevin Durant, OKC

2) Chris Paul, LA Clippers

3) LeBron James, Miami

4) Derrick Rose, Chicago

5) Zach Randolph, Memphis & Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas

Rookie of the Year:

1) Derrick Williams, Minnesota

2) Kyrie Irving, Cleveland

3) Ricky Rubio, Minnesota

4) Kemba Walker, Charlotte

5) Jimmer Fredette, Sacarmento

Other fearless predictions:

1) The Heat will have the best record in the NBA due to playing a major amount of games in the East.

2) The following players will suffer injuries that will cause them to miss significant time with their squads, even end their seasons:

-Kevin Garnett

-Elton Brand

-Roy Hibbert

-Dwayne Wade

-Andrew Bynum

-Monta Ellis

-Jason Kidd

-Manu Ginobili

3) Kobe Bryant will have the worst year of his professional career outside of his rookie year, meaning that he won’t average more than 22 points per game. It won’t be because of off-the-court distractions or lack of effort. Age and injuries will finally catch up with Bryant.

4) Eric Gordon will finish in the top-five in scoring in the entire NBA for New Orleans.

5) Dwight Howard will be traded to the…Los Angeles Lakers…around the All-star break.

6) Chris Paul will have the same impact on the Clippers as Kidd had on the Nets in his first year with New Jersey. While Kidd led the Nets to the NBA Finals during that season, Paul won’t reach that far. However, Kidd finished second in the MVP voting to Tim Duncan that year and Paul will receive the same fate to another Western Conference forward.

7) Kevin Durant will lead the league in scoring for the third consecutive year, finishing the year with a PPG of 32.5

8) Josh Smith of Atlanta will be traded to…Houston.

9) The most disappointing team in the East will be…Atlanta. The Magic will trade Howard during the season so a drop in wins from that team won’t be surprising. Boston’s decline is easy to see because of age. I’m going with Atlanta, a team that’s been a perennial playoff team the past few seasons. Between the lack of elite production from Joe Johnson, small front court, departure of Jamal Crawford, the Hawks won’t make the playoffs this season.

10) The most disappointing team in the West will be…San Antonio. The Lakers’ decline is going to be highly visible by February. Phoenix doesn’t have much outside of Steve Nash so the losses won’t be surprising. I’m not high on Golden State, yet. I’m taking the team that had the top record in the West last year to take a significant step back this season. There isn’t a bigger Tim Duncan fan outside of San Antonio than me but he will suffer the same fate as Bryant in having his worst year as a pro. Ginobili can’t stay on the court consistently and Parker can’t handle the load on his own. The Spurs are still a playoff team because they’re a veteran squad and Greg Popovich is a Hall of Fame coach but the schedule is going to destroy them and there won’t be much left in the playoffs.

11) The “Free Steve Nash” campaign will be in full-effect this season and the Suns will finally cave. This will be Nash’s final season with the Suns.

12) Yes, Randolph will finish in the top-five in MVP voting this season, you read that correctly.

13) Ricky Rubio will be an outstanding rookie for Minnesota but Derrick Williams will put up more tangible statistics and the splitting of the rookie of the year votes will cost both men the award. Kyrie Irving will win the award by default.

14) The most underrated free agent signing of the season will be David West to Indiana. He’s the perfect fit for the Pacers.

15) Right behind West will be Raymond Felton for Portland and Baron Davis for New York gets the bronze.

16) I wanted to put Sacramento in the playoffs but the Kings aren’t ready. However, they will come close to getting the eight-seed in the West.

17) The Bobcats will have the worst record in the East and New Orleans will have the least amount of wins in the West.

18) Scott Skiles of Milwaukee will be the first coach fired.