Passing the Guard: UFC 141 Preview

Music to listen to:  Get Ready For This by 2 Unlimited

Its been another banner year for mixed martial arts.  We saw the debut of the UFC on a major network (Fox), the emergence of new superstars (Junior Dos Santos, Jon Jones, Frankie Edgar, etc.), the purchase of Strikeforce by Zuffa, the growth of Bellator, etc.  The last major event within North America (respect to you Dream organization) for 2011 will be UFC 141 which pits Brock Lesnar against Alistair Overeem in the main event.

Lesnar vs. Overeem:  The winner of this fight will get to fight for the UFC heavyweight title, so the wages are significant.  Even a novice MMA fan can assess that Lesnar is the better wrestler and grappler while Overeem holds the clear advantage in the standup.  However, both men come in with questionable resumes and clear flaws that the opponent can take advantage of.

For Lesnar, he’s dealt with well-documented medial issues that go beyond MMA.  This has taken away significant training time to develop fighting skills along with depleting the body of growth as well.  While all indications are that Lesnar is finally healthy to fight at a high level, the issue has to be acknowledged.  As far as in-cage fighting concerns, Lesnar has questionable stand up skills that were exposed at times by Cain Velasquez and Shane Carwin, who are inferior by a wide margin to Overeem, who is the top standup fighter in the heavyweight division, maybe all of MMA.

Overeem has been dominant for several years in MMA and even won a K-1 title, the highest achievement a kickboxer can achieve.  However, the MMA competition has been questionable and in his last fight against Fabricio Werdum, Overeem looked uninspired and lost portions of the standup during the contest.  Furthermore, many have questioned Overeem’s physique and the possibility of illegal enhancements.

Ultimately the question is whether Overeem can use his striking to help defend the inevitable takedowns that Lesnar will attempt.  Furthermore, once Lesnar has Overeem down, can he take advantage of the top position.

Despite Lesnar’s ability to get takedowns due to his superior wrestling skills, he hasn’t been able to gain submissions or show the ability to diversify his ground game outside of hammer fists.  While this is a good technique because of his strength, Overeem should be able to use his rudimentary ground attack to escape danger.

Stamina will also be an issue because Overeem fatigues easily and while Lesnar isn’t Edgar or Clay Guida in the stamina game, he should have the advantage over his opponent if the fight gets past the second round.

Prediction:  I think we’ll see a similar fight to the contest between Lesnar and Velasquez.  Lesnar will be aggressive in his takedowns and even be able to score one early in the first round.  However, when the fight ends up back on the feet, Overeem will use his skills to deplete Lesnar of energy and ultimately score a TKO.  Overeem by third-round TKO

Donald Cerrone vs. Nate Diaz:  Cerrone is going for his fifth victory in 2011, which would have to be an unofficial UFC  record for wins in a calendar year.  A win over Diaz may get him a fight against the Benson Henderson/Edgar battle for the UFC lightweight crown.  Diaz has title aspirations of his own possibly in late 2012 or early 2013 and a victory over Cerrone would be a nice launching point towards this goal.

Cerrone will deploy an aggressive style using his Muay Thai background, especially kicks, to confuse Diaz.  Cerrone usually enjoys a reach advantage over his opponents for this game plan but won’t enjoy this advantage against Diaz, who arguably has the longest reach in the entire lightweight division.

Diaz will use his boxing skills to keep distance from Cerrone and hope to get the fight to the ground where he will enjoy a solid advantage, especially with submissions.

Prediction:  This has the potential to be the fight of the night, a spot both men are very familiar with.  I’m going to take the medium-sized upset and pick Diaz by third-round submission.

Here are my predictions for the rest of the main card:

Johny Hendricks over Jon Fitch by decision

Alexander Gustafsson def. Vladimir Matyushenko via decision

Nam Phan def. Jim Hettes by second-round TKO