Music to listen to: Cassandra Gemini by The Mars Volta
Time for my NFL Predictions. As usual, I’ll give you the Cliffsnote version first of my overall predictions and get to my Week One picks later:
AFC East: Patriots, Buffalo (wild card), New York Jets, Miami
AFC North: Baltimore, Cincinnati (wild card), Pittsburgh, Cleveland
AFC South: Houston, Tennessee, Indianapolis, Jacksonville
AFC West: San Diego, Denver, Kansas City, Oakland
AFC Championship: Houston over San Diego
NFC East: Philadelphia, Dallas, New York, Washington
NFC North: Green Bay, Chicago (wild card), Detroit, Minnesota
NFC South: Atlanta, Carolina (wildcard), New Orleans, Tampa
NFC West: San Francisco, Seattle, St. Louis, Arizona
NFC Championship: Green Bay over Philadelphia
Super Bowl: Green Bay over Houston
MVP:
1) Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay)
2) Tom Brady (New England)
3) Matt Ryan (Atlanta)
4) Drew Brees (New Orleans)
5) Philip Rivers (San Diego)
Offensive Player of the Year:
1) Rodgers (Green Bay)
2) Brady (New England)
3) Calvin Johnson (Detroit)
4) Newton (Carolina)
5) Brees (New Orleans)
Defensive Player of the Year:
1) Clay Matthews (Green Bay)
2) DeMarcus Ware (Dallas)
3) Patrick Willis (San Francisco)
4) Patrick Peterson (Arizona)
5) Jason Pierre-Paul (NY Giants)
Offensive Rookie of the Year:
1) Andrew Luck (Indianapolis)
2) Russell Wilson (Seattle)
3) Robert Griffin III (Washington)
4) Justin Blackmon (Jacksonville)
5) Trent Richardson (Cleveland)
Coach of the Year:
1) Jim Harbaugh (San Francisco)
2) Gary Kubiak (Houston)
3) Ron Rivera (Carolina
4) Andy Reid (Philadelphia)
5) John Harbaugh (Baltimore)
Week One Picks (home team in CAPS):
CHICAGO (-10) Indianapolis: I like the potential of Luck just as much as the next guy but I think its going to be too much for the Colts to go into Chicago and emerge with the win. I see a nice bounce back season for Jay Cutler, Matt Forte to be a top-five running back and the addition of Brandon Marshall to add a vertical pass to the offense and the Bears sneak into the playoffs.
Philadelphia (-9) CLEVELAND: The Browns are going to contend for the worst record in the NFL this season and having to face the Eagles without cornerback Joe Haden and a banged up Trent Richardson won’t help. I’m bullish on the Eagles which hurts to say as a Giants’ fan. Michael Vick will miss a few games but the Eagles will still win the NFC East behind a healthy LeSean McCoy, a happy DeSean Jackson and an improved defense.
Buffalo (+3) NY JETS: If my prediction of the Bills making the playoffs is going to happen, it has to start with an outright win at the Jets. Buffalo will have the best front-seven in the AFC led behind new addition Mario Williams and I believe Ryan Fitzpatrick will have a complete solid season at quarterback for Buffalo. I also expect to see more from CJ Spiller at running back this year. I see the Jets having a 6-10 season despite having a top-five defense in the entire NFL. The offense will struggle all season because the receiving group is weak, Shone Green has underwhelmed at running back, the offensive line has regressed and Tim Tebow will be starting at quarterback by week seven, which won’t help the cause.
NEW ORLEANS (-7) Washington: It was tough to leave the Saints out of the playoffs but I don’t think the whole “bounty-gate” situation will be the reason for New Orleans not making the post-season. The dirty little secret about the Saints is that the defensive unit has underperformed for years and even during their Super Bowl-winning season, causing turnovers negated the yardage given up. Brees will have another outstanding year and I’m calling for a 1,300-yard rushing season from Mark Ingram. However, the defensive liabilities will be too much for the potent offense to overcome. The Redskins have hope, RG III will make some outstanding plays and the defense will be solid. However, they’re still the fourth-best team in the most competitive division in the entire NFL.
NEW ENGLAND (-5.5) Tennessee: The Patriots have the making of a 13-win season based on the schedule, lack of competition within its division and returning arguably the best offense in the AFC. However, the lack of a running game and an inconsistent defense will not show itself until the playoffs, which means New England should roll past the Titans. I agree with the move of Tennessee to go with Jake Locker at quarterback, who will go through struggles like any other young quarterback. I think Chris Johnson has the chance to lead the NFL in rushing like he did three years ago. However, the defense of the Titans leaves something to be desired and the Titans will limp to six wins.
Jacksonville (+3.5) MINNESOTA: The Jaguars are going to be terrible this year, even with Maurice Jones-Drew, who misplayed a holdout worse than anyone I’ve seen in a long time. Unfortunately, I think we see Jones-Drew miss games due to injuries and Blaine Gabbert will still struggle at quarterback. I do see optimism in Blackmon at receiver but that still doesn’t help Jacksonville pull itself out of a three-win season. Minnesota just needs to shut down Adrian Peterson until midseason and stop trying to force him on the field after knee surgery in this past offseason. He’s the franchise player who is owed a significant amount of money over the next few years so why rush it and make him damaged goods? I LOVE Jared Allen and think he can approach another 20+ sack season, which would give him three for his career, something no other player in history has ever done (accept maybe Deacon Jones, I don’t want him coming after me so he gets a mention). The Vikings will have a long season…
Miami (+12) HOUSTON: The Dolphins are bad, like “potential worst record in the NFL” bad. The offense is terrible, outside of Reggie Bush, a rookie quarterback who was barely average at the college level is starting this season, the defense just traded its second-best defensive player and Hard Knocks won’t help the cause at all. Houston is my Super Bowl pick. The Texans have a top-five quarterback, running back, receiver, offensive line and defense within the AFC. That overall balance will make them a top contender. Despite all of this, those are too many points to lay down in a season opener.
DETROIT (-7.5) St. Louis: The Lions are going to score a lot of points this season and Calvin Johnson may approach 2,000 yards rushing if things break the right way. However, the lack of maturity, a suspect rushing attack and an undisciplined defense will prevent the Lions from making the playoffs. I also believe Detroit is a Matt Stafford injury away from a 7-9 season. The Rams have a potential defensive player of the year candidate in Chris Long but not much else. I like the addition of Jeff Fisher at head coach but don’t like Sam Bradford as a quarterback because of his lack of durability. The Lions have everyone healthy right now and may put up 35 points on the Rams in a double-digit victory.
KANSAS CITY (+3) Atlanta: I really, really wanted to put the Chiefs in the playoffs but I don’t trust Matt Cassel as my starting quarterback for a playoff team. However, if Kansas City sneaks into the playoffs behind running back Jamaal Charles and an improved defense led by safety Eric Berry, it wouldn’t surprise me. Living in Atlanta gives me the direct view of the Falcons. Atlanta will score points, Matt Ryan will have his best season as a pro and Julio Jones has All-Pro potential. However, while the majority of people who analyze the Falcons debate Ryan’s place among quarterbacks throughout the NFL, the downfalls of the past three seasons in the playoffs has been on the defensive side. The change to a 3-4 base will take time for Atlanta to adjust to, especially with the struggles in the preseason of keeping linebackers healthy. The secondary should be improved with the addition of Asante Samuel. I think the Falcons are a playoff team and even win a post-season game. However, a trip to the Super Bowl won’t happen.
GREEN BAY (-5.5) San Francisco: The Packers are my pick to win the Super Bowl. People have forgotten that until the Giants upset them in the playoffs last season, that team was getting discussed among the top squads of the past 20 years. Everyone of major consequence is back with the Packers and improvements have been made to the defense on paper. When you have in opinion the best player in the NFL, Aaron Rodgers, that gives you a shot to make a deep run in the postseason. This may be the game of the weekend because the 49ers are going to be a major player this season as well. I love the physicality of the defense and the rushing attack. I’m still cynical of Alex Smith at quarterback but he should be improved even more this season under Jim Harbaugh. The 49ers are going to need more offensive weapons to throw to besides Vernon Davis and that will be the ultimate downfall in the playoffs.
CAROLINA (-2.5) Tampa: Every season there is a surprise team that makes the playoffs and I’m riding with the Panthers. The defense needs improvement and I want to see more from the receivers outside of Steve Smith. However, I’m all in on Cam Newton and Carolina sneaking into the postseason. If Newton cuts down on the turnovers, we’re looking at a potential 4,000 passing, 800 yards rushing and a total of 45 combined touchdowns. If that happens, you may be looking at this season’s MVP. I believe Josh Freeman will play better this season at quarterback for the Bucs and the discipline of the new head coach will help. However, the lack of talent will be the downfall of Tampa. I expect to see a double-digit win for the Panthers.
ARIZONA (+2.5) Seattle: I really, really wanted to put Seattle in the playoffs and maybe even win the division. The pieces are there. The Seahawks will receive solid quarterback play from Wilson, I think running back Marshawn Lynch has a good season left in him and the defense can be a top-five unit in the NFL. However, too many leaps have to be made from units on the squad, specifically offensive line and receivers for me to make the pick. However, if Seattle sneaks into the playoffs, similar to my thoughts on the Chiefs, it wouldn’t surprise me. The Cardinals are an overall mess, especially at quarterback. I would just stick with John Skelton and see what happens. Patrick Peterson is a star at cornerback and may win two games by himself for the Cardinals including this one in my Upset Pick of the Week.
Pittsburgh (+1.5) DENVER: The health of both quarterbacks will determine the fates of both of these teams. I actually think Peyton Manning last longer than Ben Roethlisberger this season. The Broncos will be improved in the passing attack and will be competitive behind a solid defensive unit. Denver’s schedule is also brutal. Picking the Steelers to not make the playoffs is a bold step but I see a lot of injuries on the defense along with a suspect rushing attack and lack of vertical attack outside of Mike Wallace makes this a tough year for Pittsburgh. However, I think the Steelers find a way to nudge a victory on Sunday.
BALTIMORE (-6) Cincinnati: Both of these squads are playoff teams. For the first time in a long time, the Raven’s offense will perform better this season than the defense behind a career-year from Joe Flacco. I think Ray Rice will also lead the NFL in rushing. The Bengals will continue to see improvement from quarterback Andy Dalton and an underrated defense. Receiver AJ Green may become a top-five receiver in the NFL by the end of this season. I’ll take the Ravens to make a statement at home on Monday night.
SAN DIEGO (-1) Oakland: The Chargers will win the AFC West behind a bounce back season from Rivers at quarterback. The Raiders are interesting and I like Darren McFadden at running back. However, the defense is average and the regression of Carson Palmer will prevent the Raiders from having a winning season.
Those are my thoughts, what are yours?
The Sports Inquirer 
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