Backdoor Cut: 2012-13 NBA Predictions

 

Music to listen to:  Du Hast by Rammstein

I did a preseason breakdown of the Eastern and Western conferences of the NBA a few days ago but here’s my complete list of playoff teams with other various predictions:

Eastern Conference:

1)      Miami

2)     Boston

3)     Indiana

4)     Atlanta

5)     New York

6)     Brooklyn

7)     Chicago

8)     Philadelphia

9)     Cleveland

Conference finals:  Miami over Boston

General thoughts:  The Heat and Celtics are the two-best teams in the East by a significant margin, even though Indiana may have moments during the season looking like an upper-tier conference squads at moments this season.

I know the Hawks traded away Joe Johnson and Marvin Williams, but the overall squad lead by a motivated Josh Smith (contract year, finally given leadership role with team), a healthy Al Horford along with complimentary pieces will gain Atlanta home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.

Some have placed the Nets ahead of the Knicks but I didn’t do that for several reasons.  First, the Nets look like a nice team on paper but the lack of team defense and defensive rebounding is a major concern.  Deron Williams and Johnson will put up points and Brook Lopez may occasionally put up a 25-15-4 night but lacks the consistency to be a upper-level team.  The Knicks aren’t exactly the 1989 Pistons on the defensive side of the ball themselves but I trust Tyson Chandler in the middle and Mike Woodson’s overall coaching in this aspect.  Furthermore, I expect a potential MVP-caliber season from Carmelo Anthony.  The criticism has been heard and if Anthony can carry over his excellent campaign from the 2012 Olympics, the Knicks will be solid.

The last two playoff teams could potentially be higher by the end of the season if their best players make good returns from forms of injuries.  The Bulls could compete for the top record in the conference if Derrick Rose was healthy for the entire season but his return from major knee surgery is unsure.  I trust Tom Thibodeau, like Joakim Noah, Luol Deng and Chicago will still have a top-flight defensive unit which will carry a struggling offense.  Chicago’s bench is weaker this season as well which is a concern.

Andrew Bynum had injury issues with the Los Angeles Lakers and they’ve carried over to Philadelphia.  He’s the best center in the conference and could make things interesting in the Atlantic division.  However, Bynum is going to miss numerous games this year and that will knock the Sixers down several spots in the standings but not enough to miss the playoffs.  I threw Cleveland in there because Kyrie Irving will become a top-15 player in the NBA this season and Anderson Varejao may make his first All-Star team this year.  The Cavs will be close but not make it.

Western Conference:

1)      Oklahoma City Thunder

2)     Los Angeles Lakers

3)     San Antonio Spurs

4)     Denver Nuggets

5)     Los Angeles Clippers

6)     Memphis Grizzlies

7)     Dallas Mavericks

8)     Utah Jazz

9)     Minnesota Timberwolves

Conference finals:  Oklahoma City over LA Lakers

NBA Finals:  Miami over OKC

General thoughts:  The sports media has had a strong buzz the past few days with the Thunder’s trade of James Harden to Houston in essence for Kevin Martin, Jeremy Lamb and draft picks.  I’ve read many angles written about the trade but it comes down to this.  Harden is an excellent player who worked well in Oklahoma City.  However, if Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook stay healthy and don’t go Shaq/Kobe on us this year, the Thunder are still the best team in the West.  I don’t think the drop-off between Harden and Martin is that significant within the context of OKC’s operations on the court.  Harden is the better overall player but Martin may be the better shooter and his role off the bench will be to score points.  Furthermore, I thought Lamb was the third-most talented player in this past NBA Draft behind Anthony Davis and Andre Drummond (how does that feel UCONN fans?).  Lamb is a potential star in the league and will benefit greatly being with the Thunder.

The Lakers are similar to the Nets in the fact that the squad looks good on paper but may take a lot of time to mesh well together.  The season-opening game had Steve Nash playing off of the ball which was new.  Dwight Howard is still working out the health of his back as well.  The Lakers have to figure out how to play faster with quicker pace players like Howard and Nash and mold them with slower players such as Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol.  Furthermore, the bench leaves a lot to be desired.  The Lakers will be right there by the end of the season but they will lose some games early that will cost them home-court advantage in the playoffs.

I’m done downgrading the Spurs (I said they wouldn’t make the playoffs in last season’s predictions) so I’m playing it safe and putting them at the third spot.

I really, really wanted to put Denver ahead of the Spurs and even higher because the depth of the squad is the best in the NBA.  That doesn’t mean the Nuggets have the best players in the league (in fact I don’t think they have a top-15 player) but the entire team from players one through 10 has the most balance of anybody in the league.  This will serve them well in the regular season but beyond that is a question.

The Clippers, Memphis and Dallas are swing teams within the West and could move up or down from their predicted spots.  In the end, Chris Paul is the best player at this time among these set of teams and him teaming with Blake Griffin will be better than the trio of Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph and Rudy Gay for the Grizzlies and Dirk Nowitzki with his cast in Dallas.

I like Minnesota a lot but Kevin Love is going to miss the first month of the season with a hand injury and Ricky Rubio is coming off knee surgery.  If those two guys came into the season healthy, the Timberwolves would definitely be a playoff squad.  However, I’m taking Utah to return to the postseason because the front court of Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, Derrick Favors, Marvin Williams along with emerging star Gordon Haywood will get the Jazz into the playoffs.  The guard play leaves much to be desired but it won’t deter a postseason appearance.

Most Valuable Player:

1)      Lebron James, Miami

2)     Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City

3)     Chris Paul, Los Angeles Clippers

4)     Rajon Rondo, Boston

5)     Tony Parker, San Antonio

This has really turned into a microcosm of the NBA in 2012.  You have a once-in-a-generation talent (James) who should cement his legacy if he stays healthy.  As I stated a few days ago, only Kareem, Bill Russell and Michael Jordan have won four or more MVP awards.  James currently sits at three and should add his name to that list this season.

The next guy is a legit 6’10’’ player who may be the best shooter in the NBA.  Twenty years ago, players with Kevin Durant’s skill set didn’t exist.  He’s going to lead the league in scoring again which would give him four for the career.  Since I played this game with James, only Michael Jordan (10), Wilt Chamberlin (7), George Gervin (4) and Allen Iverson (4) have won four or more titles in their career.  Durant may challenge Wilt’s mark before he’s done.  Furthermore, some media members may get tired of giving James the MVP award (it happened to Kareem and Jordan numerous times in their careers) and Durant would be the biggest benefactor from leading his squad to a 60-win season.

The next three players are all point guards, which means my top-five doesn’t include a center or a shooting guard, which if this happened in real life would possibly be a first in the history of the NBA.  Paul, Rondo and Parker could all switch places throughout the season but my order is based on who the best player is and then who will have the “biggest” impact on the team’s success.

Apologies to Kevin Love and Derrick Rose who would make major runs towards this list if healthy.

Coach of the year: 

1)      Doc Rivers, Boston

2)     Gregg Popovich, San Antonio

3)     George Karl, Denver

4)     Rick Carlisle, Dallas

5)     Frank Vogel, Indiana

It would seem impossible to have the coaches who will most likely lead their teams to the best records in their respective conferences, Eric Spoelstra for Miami and Scott Brooks for Oklahoma City.  However, this award tends to go to teams that achieve above expectations.  The Celtics are still a good team but have regressed physically the past two seasons but still produce an excellent product.  Rivers has a lot to do with this.  Popovich is the best NBA coach of our generation (Phil Jackson fits outside of this category) and will get the most out of the Spurs.  If the Nuggets contend for the best record of the West, Karl will make a run at this award.

Final thoughts/predictions for this season:

1)       The positive surprise teams this season will be Denver, Atlanta and Utah

2)      The disappointments will be Brooklyn, Clippers and Phiadelphia

3)      Lebron James will come very close to averaging a triple-double this season but will fall short on assists.  If he wanted to, James could compete for a rebounding title but will settle for double-digits in this category because he is human.

4)      There will be calls for Mike Brown to lose his job with the Lakers in late December but he will survive.

5)      Either Kobe Bryant or Steve Nash will miss 20 games this season for the Lakers.

6)      Javale McGee of Denver will finish in the top-three for defensive player of the year and potentially be the best center in the West for the first half of the season.

7)      Either Kevin Garnett or Paul Pierce will miss at least 20 games this season for Boston.

8)      A’mare Stoudemire will miss at least 35 games this season and may not even make it to the playoffs for the Knicks.

9)      Greg Monroe and Andre Dummond will get the Pistons closer to the playoffs than expected.

10)   Joe Johnson will not average more than 15 points per game for Brookyn.

11)   Andrew Bynum will play in…65 games for the Sixers this season.

12)   We won’t see Derrick Rose until after the All-Star break for the Bulls.

13)   There will be John Wall trade rumors that will be acknowledged for Washington.

14)   The team with the worst record in the NBA this season will be…Charlotte

15)   Josh Smith will make his first-ever All-Star appearance this season representing Atlanta.

16)   The following players will make pushes for their first All-Star appearance (at least two of these guys make it this season):

1. Kyrie Irving, Cleveland
2. Joakim Noah, Chicago
3. Greg Monroe, Detroit
4. Danilo Gallinari, Denver
5. Stephen Curry, Golden State
6. James Harden, Houston

Those are my thoughts, what are yours?