Passing the Guard: UFC 155 Preview

Music to listen to:  Schism (Tool Cover) by Piano Tribute Players

Back in November 2006, the co-main event for UFC 65 was a heavyweight title match between Tim Sylvia and Jeff Monson which lacked interest and severely questioned the merits of the entire division within the promotion.  With elite heavyweights like Fedor Emelianenko, Mikro CroCop, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueria fighting in Japan with the Pride organization during this time, the UFC didn’t have the gravitas to legitimately claim to have the best fighter in the world above 205 pounds.

 

Six years later, due to time evolution and the lack of legitimate competition, the UFC can not only claim to have the best heavyweights in the world and one of the most dynamic divisions in the sport, the promotion can have a legitimate headliner for a title fight between two men who represent the growth of MMA, Junior Dos Santos and Cain Velasquez.

 

Fifteen years ago, current UFC heavyweight champion Dos Santos would be firmly entrenched in a professional boxing career due to his elite stand up fighting skills.  Dos Santos continues to use his strong takedown defense to batter opponents with an onslaught of punches, as evidence in his decisive victories over Roy Nelson in August 2010, Shane Carwin in June 2011 and his last title defense, a devastating TKO of Frank Mir back in May.  While Dos Santos possesses a black belt in jiu jitsu training under the legendary Nogueira brothers, he hasn’t had the opportunity to showcase these skills in a UFC contest.

 

Valasquez would have been coming off an appearance in the Summer Olympics as a freestyle wrestler and lacking career options back in the early 1990’s.  Now the American Kickboxing Academy product looks to reclaim the title that was taken away from him by Dos Santos back in November 2011 at UFC on Fox 1.  Velasquez has continued to improve his standup skills throughout his career but the game plan for many of his fights continues to become gaining takedowns and controlling the action of the contest on the ground.  The former champ’s stamina also continues to be at a world-class level within the division.

 

The fight at UFC 155 will come down to who will show more flexibility within the game plan.  Dos Santos will want to keep the fight standing and use his aggressive style to set up the knockout.  However, Velasquez will possess a reach advantage, actually has more hand speed and has the ability to keep distance away from the Brazilian.  Velasquez would like to get several takedowns to establish the pace and wear down the champ.  However, Dos Santos has continually shown excellent ground defense and has the potential to gain offensive opportunities during sprawls.

 

Velasquez will not only last past the first round in this rematch but will establish a fast pace using a strong work rate.  He will even get several takedowns on Dos Santos.  However, the counter punching of Dos Santos will wear down the challenger to an eventual TKO in the championship rounds.

 

Prediction:  Dos Santos by fourth-round TKO

 

Here are the picks for the rest of the main card:

 

Jim Miller over Joe Lauzon by decision

Tim Boetsch over Constantinos Philippou by third-round TKO

Alan Belcher over Yushin Okami via decision

Chris Leban over Karlos Vemola via second-round TKO