Gridiron Blitz: NFL Picks Week Four

 

Music to listen to: Midnight in a Perfect World by DJ Shadow

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nmzHRGoKca0

Last week: 5-11-0

Season: 5-11-0

 

As you can tell, I didn’t have the strongest start to my NFL picks last week. Who was I to expect a professional NFL team to cover a 20-point spread on the road (Jacksonville) or a potential division winner to get a road win against an average team (Giants). Silly me. Let’s get to the picks.

 

San Francisco (-3) ST. LOUIS: Got this one right last night. When you’re struggling offensively, get back to basics like the 49ers did with Frank Gore running the ball. Kaepernick will still have to perform at a high-level for San Francisco to return to the Super Bowl but before he became the breakout star for the Niners and Alex Smith was the starting quarterback, the identity of the team lied in running the ball and playing tough defense. San Fran may not win the NFC West this year but they’re going nowhere.

 

Pittsburgh (-3) Minnesota (London game): I’ve never trusted Christian Ponder even back to his Florida State days. He’s not the biggest reason that the Vikings are winless but he’s not helping the cause. Pittsburgh has had a rough start to the season but showed some life at the end of the Bears game when it threw the ball down the field. The Steelers win an ugly game.

 

BUFFALO (+3) Baltimore: I’ve slowly warmed up to EJ Manuel and think the Bills make it a close affair at Charm City.

 

Cincinnati (-4.5) CLEVELAND: The Browns won a road game last week in Minnesota and the Bengals needed a furious comeback at home against Green Bay to pull out a win. You would think that Cleveland returning home and the Bengals traveling on the road would make the Browns a live dog. I don’t believe it. The biggest things that translate from the road to home is a rushing attack and a solid defense. Cincinnati has started to develop both of those attributes well.

 

Indianapolis (-8.5) JACKSONVILLE: The Jaguars are terrible and with the Pittsburgh Pirates making the playoffs, this NFL franchise has thrown its hat proudly into the contest for “worst franchise in sports.” You can argue for the Columbus Blue Jackets, Miami Marlins, Sacramento Kings, Charlotte Bobcats and even the Oakland Raiders but Jacksonville’s lack of talent (worst roster in the NFL), fan apathy and lack of resources make the northern Florida location a sad state.

 

TAMPA (-2.5) Arizona: Its risky taking a quarterback who’s never started a game in Tampa’s Mike Glennon but if he can give the Bucs any solid production at that position over Josh Freeman, they have an excellent chance to beat an Arizona squad that looks lost in the early stages of the Bruce Arians era.

 

Chicago (+3) DETROIT: Do the Bears have the best offense in the NFC? If the offensive line that’s starting two rookies can hold up, maybe. The Lions can make a case with the best wide receiver in the NFL in Calvin Johnson but the injury to Reggie Bush severely limits the offense.

 

KANSAS CITY (-4.5) New York Giants: The Giants, who have been the biggest dissapointment in the NFL, are traveling to a rejuvinated Kansas City team that’s undefeated and enjoys one of the best home-field advantages in the sport. Lock of the Week.

 

NY Jets (+3.5) TENNESSEE: Tricky game. I want to jump on the Jack Locker train as a partial Titans fan (you live in Nashville for seven years, it happens). However, I think the Jets are a frisky squad right now that makes Tennessee work for every point. I still have the Titans winning but by less than the spread.

 

Dallas (-2) SAN DIEGO: Things are going too well for Dallas. It finally has a running game, the defense isn’t terrible, Dez Bryant has emerged as a top-flight wide receiver, Tony Romo isn’t turning the ball over as much and the rest of the division has been horrid. Washington, New York Giants and Philadelphia have one win among them. This would be a classic game for the Cowboys to lose in the past, especially traveling to the west coast meeting a desperate Chargers’ team. San Diego just doesn’t have the talent to get this win.

 

OAKLAND (+3.5) Washington: The Redskins should win this game on paper but something is off about that team and it goes way beyond Robert Griffin III. I picked Washington to win the NFC East this season not only because of RG III but because the defense, which was respectable last season, was returning with Orakpo back in the lineup. As an individual unit, Washington’s defense has disappointed the most this year. The Raiders aren’t a strong team either but will make this a close one. Don’t know who’s going to win it but it will be by less than the spread.

 

DENVER (-11) Philadelphia: I’m not picking against the Broncos at home the way they’re rolling.

 

ATLANTA (-2) New England: Falcons are one of the best home teams in the NFL and are DESPERATE for a win.

 

NEW ORLEANS (-6.5) Miami: Saints roll on its home turf.

 

Those are my thoughts, what are yours?