Zone Blitz: Week Five NFL Picks

 

Music to listen to: Roulette Dares (live) by The Mars Volta

Last week: 6-9-0

This week: 0-1-0

Season: 12-21-0

 

As you can tell by the numbers above, its been a rough two weeks of NFL picks for me. To make things even better, I picked Buffalo over Cleveland last night, which was a loss. It seems like the Browns can’t catch a break with Hoyer out with a knee injury. No excuses, lets just get to this week…

 

(Home teams in CAPS)

 

Kansas City (-3) TENNESSEE: If Jake Locker was healthy, I would be more optimistic about the Titans’ chances in this contest. You could do much worse than Ryan Fitzpatrick as your backup quarterback. However, there three things that carry over best on the road for an NFL team and the Chiefs have them rolling right now. KC has a strong defense (top-five in the NFL), rushing attack (as a fantasy owner, Jammall Charles hasn’t even had a breakout game yet but has had a decent start) and don’t turn the ball over.

 

MIAMI (-3) Baltimore: I’ve been right and wrong when evaluating quarterbacks when coming into the NFL over the years. I thought that the Colts should have taken Ryan Leaf over Peyton Manning (incredibly incorrect). I knew that Christian Ponder wasn’t a first-round pick (correct). I thought the Giants should have taken Phillip Rivers or Ben Roethlisberger over Eli Manning (probably incorrect in the end). I thought Russell Wilson was a first-round quarterback (incredibly correct, its as if the scouts forgot that the guy was the best QB in the ACC for two years and led Wisconsin to a Rose Bowl.

 

I didn’t think that Ryan Tannehill was a first-round caliber pick, especially not in the top-ten. When the Dolphins took him 8th in the draft two years ago, I thought it would set the franchise back. He’s shown moments of good play this season but the verdict is still out. Joe Flacco is another one I may miss on because quite honestly, I didn’t see him play at Delaware and had a negative view of him. Obviously, winning a Super Bowl championship changes things some. However, before people want to put Flacco in Canton, remember that Brad Johnson, Trent Dilfer and Mark Rypien own Super Bowl rings as well. Just saying…

 

Jacksonville (+11.5) ST. LOUIS: The Jags may the worst team of the past 10 years (I see you 2008 Detroit Lions). However, they have to get together one of these weeks and cover one of these contests. The Rams will win but keep it within single-digits Jacksonville. Have some pride in yourself!

 

New England (+1) CINCINNATI: For all of the well-deserved talk about Tom Brady working wonders with a weak talent base on offense, the Patriots’ defense has worked itself into championship form during the start of the season. Losing Vince Wilfork is a MASSIVE loss for the Pats on the defensive line but they’ll have enough to get the Bengals who are at the point of their franchise where they have to, excuse the metaphor, crap or get off the pot. If you’re going to be a Super Bowl team, you can’t lose to Cleveland. You can’t trail Green Bay by double-digits at home and need a miraculous comeback to win. Cincinnati’s defense is there. The rushing attack is there. A.J. Green is there. That only leaves coaching and quarterback play.

 

INDIANAPOLIS (+3) Seattle: The Seahawks had a gritty win at Houston last night but it took a Brian Cushing injury, questionable play calling and Matt Schaub being Matt Schaub for Seattle to leave Houston with a win. Similar to Kansas City, Seattle has the attributes to go on the road to win but the Colts are ready to make another step forward at home with Andrew Luck.

 

GREEN BAY (-7) Detroit: Packers’ offense gets healthy at home, leading to a double-digit home win for Green Bay.

 

CHICAGO (+1) New Orleans: I’ll take the Bears as a home underdog. Both teams’ defenses thrive on getting turnovers and it seems like Drew Brees is due for a three interceptions-type of game. Furthermore, while the Bears lost at Detroit last week, Chicago’s offense looks the most settled its been in years. Jay Cutler is receiving good protection. Matt Forte looks healthy and getting more touches in space. Brandon Marshall seems calm.

 

NY GIANTS (-2) Philadelphia: The Eagles’ offense has always given the Giants problems but New York has to get it together for at least one home game and avoid going 0-5.

 

Carolina (-2) ARIZONA: Cam Newton had the best season opener for a rookie quarterback ever three years ago in Arizona when he threw for more than 400 yards. I say the positive karma is still there and taking the Panthers as a road favorite. If this was real money, I wouldn’t touch this game.

 

San Diego (-4.5) OAKLAND: Another game to avoid but someone has to win it.

 

DALLAS (+7.5) Denver: Keep it simple Cowboys. Control the clock with DeMarco Murray rushing the ball. Pass the ball to Dez Bryant often. don’t turn the ball over. Do that and you’ll keep it interesting with Denver. On defense, pressure Peyton Manning. Its the only way to stop the Broncos’ offense. Don’t play zone, it won’t help.

 

SAN FRANCISCO (-6.5) Houston: Similar to Green Bay, the 49ers will get healthy over a reeling Texans squad who similar to the Bengals, need to step their game up to a championship level immediately. No excuse losing that double-digit lead at home to Seattle last week.

 

ATLANTA (-10) New York Jets: The Falcons have their issues with offensive line production, lack of a pass rush, an unhealthy Roddy White, running back injuries and other things. However, the Jets don’t have the horses to take advantage of these issues, especially on the road.