Gridiron Blitz: NFL Picks Week Four

Music to listen to: Deathwish (live) by The Police

Another week, another set of picks. Let’s get it.

Home team in CAPS:

WASHINGTON (-3) New York Giants: My rule so far this season has been to bet for the home team on these Thursday night games and I’m continuing the trend this week. I know the Giants finally put together a solid game last Sunday against Houston but it was far from an elite performance. The Redskins should have no problems moving the ball down the field against the below-average Giants’ defense.

Oakland (+4) Miami (London): This game will take place in London which allows me to throw some English Premier League talk your way. If you’re not interested in futbol, move on to the next pick.

How about ole Frankie Lampard scoring the tying goal against Chelsea for fellow title contender Manchester City? I respect the fact that he didn’t want to celebrate the goal, that was a classy move from him. I also liked the fact that he said he respected Chelsea but on the pitch, he’s a professional. More athletes should take a page from Lampard in that regard.

How about Arsenal? It was good to see Ozil and Welbeck get goals against Aston Villa. Maybe that will open up the offense some more. Still worried about the defense, especially on set pieces. The marking has been below average particularly on corner kicks.

Overall, I think we’re looking at a Chelsea championship at the end of the season even though City will lurk in the background. Liverpool’s surprising lack of depth for a high-level squad having to compete for an EPL title and Champions League at the same time will hurt them. The defense is also lacking in Anfield. Who else is left? Tottenham can’t score, Everton suddenly can’t play defense, Manchester United is a cluster fuck right now. We’re not even in October yet so there’s plenty of futbol to be played but the title contenders already look set.

CHICAGO (+1.5) Green Bay: Is Green Bay really a good team? Aaron Rodgers is one of the top five quarterbacks in football, Eddie Lacy may be the strongest running back in the NFL, Clay Matthews gets sacks along with Julius Peppers. Who doesn’t love Jordy Nelson? Does anyone in the NFL have a better name than Randall Cobb named after the former heavyweight boxer Randall “Tex” Cobb? Wonder where Tex was from?

All of those are sexy names and players of value. However, when you have below-average line play, especially on the offensive end, those players can’t flourish and that’s what we’re seeing in Green Bay right now.

Heading to Chicago isn’t the best remedy for this even though the Bears have plenty of questions of their own. I’m taking the home team to get a late field goal and escape with the victory.

HOUSTON (-3) Buffalo: I’ll take some blame for messing with Buffalo’s positive karma. I gave the Bills a glowing review in last week’s post and they proceeded to get beaten up pretty good at home by San Diego.

Now they head to Houston and have to deal with that Texans’ defense. I don’t know if EJ Manuel has completed five consecutive passes in a single game in his career. The arm talent is there and he has athleticism. However, if you can’t complete simple passes consistently as a quarterback, I can’t trust you on the road.

INDIANAPOLIS (-7) Tennessee: The Colts are still in the worst division in the NFL and should handle the Titans as easily as they did the Jaguars last week. Plus the game is at home.

I would actually like to see the Colts open up their offense even more. I know they’re trying to establish the run but it hurts the heart to see Trent Richardson continue to struggle.

I would have put a paycheck or two on the line that Richardson was going to be an All-Pro running back in the NFL. He’s still relatively young but if it hasn’t happened by now, odds are it isn’t.

Let Luck throw the ball more like last week. He went 31-for-39, threw for 370 yards and four touchdowns. Granted, it was against Jacksonville and that’s a darn near perfect game for a QB which can’t be expected every game. However, he’s going to have more games close to that if given a chance.

Carolina (+3) BALTIMORE:

I actually didn’t mind the capri pants that Cam Newton wore at the postgame press conference last Sunday. The light purple jacket was another story though. Maybe he was celebrating the last few days of summer before fall. Speaking of which

Detroit (-1.5) NEW YORK JETS: The only times I miss living in New York are the first month of fall and when a pro team is in the playoffs accept for the Yankees. If the Knicks or New York Rangers make the playoffs this upcoming season, I’m flying back up to the NYC just to walk the streets and feel the vibes.

PITTSBURGH (-7.5) Tampa: Tampa’s first win may not come until Oct. 26 against Minnesota. Its going to be a long month for Bucs’ fans.

Jacksonville (+13.5) SAN DIEGO: Wise move by the Jags to start Blake Bortles. I didn’t understand the organization saying that Bortles was going to sit this whole season. Chad frickin Henne was never going be the answer.

Jacksonville still loses this game but they will keep it within single digits.

Philadelphia (+5.5) SAN FRANCISCO: Tough game to call. Philadelphia’s habit of falling behind in games will eventually catch up with it. San Francisco seems to be in the same boat as Green Bay in the fact that the individual parts look good on paper but it hasn’t come together.

I’m not in the camp of Colin Kaepernick of being overrated or not a championship-caliber quarterback. He has the tools to be an elite player but is going through struggles, especially in the three-interception game against Chicago two weeks ago. He’ll be fine even though his offensive line could provide some better support.

Philly’s offense is the best in the NFL right now, even better than Denver’s, especially the read option packages. I’ll take the Eagles in a road upset.

MINNESOTA (+3.5) Atlanta: The Falcons just came off of a dominating home win over Tampa and had a few extra days of rest. I’m still taking Minnesota to cover the spread despite being without Adrian Peterson.

Atlanta is a different team outside of a domed stadium and that will work against it.

New Orleans (-3) DALLAS: Its every NFL fan’s favorite game. The “how good/bad will Tony Romo look in a primetime game on national television” game! We get the added bonus of New Orleans coming into town playing in a domed stadium. The over/under of the game is 53 points and even that seems low. A final score of 34-20 covers. That’s easy money.

Lots of points are going to be scored, many coverages will be blown by both defenses and joy will be present.

KANSAS CITY (-3.5) New England: Its not wise to bet against Tom Brady on Monday Night Football but statistically, the Pats have the worst offense in the NFL right now if you look at yards per play. The Chiefs defense does just enough to hold off New England.

Last week: 8-8-0

Season: 21-27-0