Music to listen to: The Same Deep Water As You by The Cure:
Time for some new NFL picks. As always, home team in CAPS:
NEW ENGLAND (-9.5) New York Jets: As I stated last week before the Jets’ game against Denver, it doesn’t matter if Mike Vick, Geno Smith, Ken O’Brien, Browning Nagle, Neal O’Donnel, Joe Namath or any other quarterback from that franchise’s history, the 2014 squad is still a bad team. New England has had its inconsistencies this season but anything less than a double-digit win would be disappointing.
INDIANAPOLIS (-3) Cincinnati: Solid matchup overall. I could certainly see the Bengals emerging with a road victory with its talent but they’re a different team on the road. Furthermore, the bad health of AJ Green will eventually catch up with CIncinnati in a bad way.
Tennessee (+5.5) WASHINGTON: Not a solid matchup between two backup quarterbacks. If this potentially lost season for the Redskins has shown us anything, its that Robert Griffin III is the clear best choice for them. Kirk Cousins may develop into a solid NFL starting quarterback in the future but he’s not there yet. Speaking of bad quarterback situations, when do the Titans release Jake Locker and start over? Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota would look nice in a Tennessee uniform this time next year.
CHICAGO (-3.5) Miami: I know that the Falcons are bad team and we’ll get to them later but the Bears looked like a Super Bowl contender last week against them. While relying on consistent play from Jay Cutler for a playoff run is risky, many of the other pieces are there for Chicago.
Cleveland (-5) JACKSONVILLE: I don’t understand the talk out of Cleveland about the contract of Brady Hoyer being a problem for the Browns. He’s in the last year of his contract and won’t take the lowball extension offer from the team with Johnny Manziel lurking in the backup spot. The Browns should play the season out and if Hoyer is extension-worthy even with a few extra dollars, you make it happen. If Hoyer regresses back to his mean as a backup quarterback, you let him walk and ride with Manziel.
Seattle (-7) ST. LOUIS: I still like the Seahawks to repeat as Super Bowl champions so a loss to a good Dallas team at home isn’t cause for major concern. If Seattle can go into the playoffs healthy, it will be all good.
CAROLINA (+7) Green Bay: The Packers are the better team but not as much as you may think. Aaron Rodgers may be having the best year of his career which a monumental statement and he’s covered up many of the Packers’ flaws this season. Carolina still brings a good defense to the field, especially at home and will cover.
BALTIMORE (-7) Atlanta: The Falcons, especially on the defensive end, are on the bottom half of the league in talent. They only have TWO players on the roster that I would consider an above-average player in his position, Matt Ryan and Julio Jones. That’s how you’re 2-4 with wins that required an extraordinary comeback at home against New Orleans and over a hapless Tampa squad. The Ravens aren’t dominant themselves but certainly better than Atlanta, especially at home.
Minnesota (+5.5) BUFFALO: Both teams have flaws which will lead to a close contest with the Vikings covering.
DETROIT (-2.5) New Orleans: Potential double-digit win for the Lions. If their defensive unit, especially the line, can produce an effort this week like last week against Minnesota, the Saints may be in trouble.
Kansas City (+4) SAN DIEGO: Another close match that will come down to a field goal.
Dallas (-6.5) NEW YORK GIANTS: The Cowboys are looking very un-Cowboys like lately. Running the ball on offense, not allowing big plays on defense, I’m not used to seeing this. The good times will continue against the Giants who are who they are. If New York faces a bad team, it has a shot. Put the Giants against a competent team, they will fall. Dallas is playing like the be team in the NFL right now. You do the math on who I’m taking.
Arizona (-3.5) OAKLAND: Another tricky game but a healthy Carson Palmer will be enough for the Cardinals to leave with a win.
DENVER (-6.5) San Francisco: The Broncos at home on primetime national TV. I’ll take Denver.
Houston (+3.5) PITTSBURGH: Coin flip went to the Texans.
Last week: 7-8-0
Season: 43-48-0
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