Passing the Guard: UFC 188 preview

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By E. Marcel Pourtout, Editor

Music to listen to: You Belong to the City by Glenn Frey

This song came on my radio a few weeks ago when I was driving to the gym for a workout not feeling the best, contemplating the next moves of my life. If you listen to the lyrics closely, it will make you reflect and analyze the next steps of your life, especially for a city boy like me from Brooklyn.

With that, we’ll delve into a preview of UFC 188 and other thoughts on the world of mixed martial arts.

-Cain Velasquez vs. Fabricio Werdum

We finally get to see the best fighter in mixed martial arts. It’s been a difficult 20 months physically for the UFC heavyweight champion Velasquez. After a stirring TKO victory over Junior Dos Santos at UFC 166 in October 2013, injuries have sidelined Velasquez and seen his profile lessen tremendously over that time. Fighters like Ronda Rousey, Jon Jones, Conor McGregor, Chris Weidman, Daniel Cormier (who happens to be Velasquez’s main training partner at American Kickboxing Academy) have overtaken the champion in popularity in the mainstream and casual MMA fans.

Out of sight, out of mind. While blame should be placed on Velasquez for not promoting himself during injury or inactivity like Dominick Cruz, Michael Bisping, Gil Melendez, Weidman and Cormier (all of whom have gigs as television analyst in sports media), not being able to physically fight and show his skills in the cage has hurt the entire heavyweight division.

Despite all of that, Velasquez has to be placed among the top pound-for-pound fighters in the world. He has quickness and slickness in the heavyweight division that hasn’t been seen for a man that size in the history of MMA. Velasquez has the best stamina in the division by a significant margin. Look back at his fight Brock Lesnar and third contest against Dos Santos, two quality champions in their own right. Velasquez dominates them easily. When you add that to a wrestling base that’s world-class, its an incredible combination of skills that Velasquez brings and makes him one of the best in the world.

However, we haven’t seen that in nearly two years and since then, an interim champion has been awarded in Werdum. The UFC has produced a revival of careers the past year of veterans such as current welterweight champion Robbie Lawler to former heavyweight champion Andrei Arlovski who may be a win or two away from another title shot in 2016. That last statement may be a testament to the lack of depth in the UFC heavyweight division in 2015 but a realistic statement.

Werdum has been fighting professionally since 2002 and had a reputation as someone who had a strong ground game but wasn’t the best standup fighter. This was highlighted with a first-round armbar submission of all-time great Fedor Emelianenko back in June 2010 at Strikeforce. The book on Werdum was to avoid going to the ground and take your chances striking.

However, the Brazilian has become a competent striker and won his last five fights including a second-round TKO of Mark Hunt at UFC 180 in November 2014 to win the interim heavyweight title. When you’re out striking Hunt, that’s something to take notice of.

The main event of UFC 180 looks like an easy win for Velasquez because he’s the better striker, quicker, has more stamina and has solid takedown defense. However, the layoff is unpredictable on how it will affect Velasquez. Werdum is peaking at the right time and has fought five hard rounds in a win so the energy should be there.

Prediction: Velasquez by fourth-round TKO

-Gil Melendez vs. Eddie Alvarez

If you’re a follower of these lightweight fighters, your biggest memories of them are probably outside of the UFC. For Melendez, it was his successful tenure at Strikeforce which produced fight of the year candidates against Josh Thomson and a title with that promotion. Alvarez held the unofficial title of best fighter outside of the UFC from 2009-11 holding the title in Bellator.

Both men have come to the UFC with mixed results. Melendez debuted in the promotion in April 2013 with a title shot against Benson Henderson that he lost by decision. Melendez recovered with a win over Diego Sanchez but a setback against Anthony Pettis last November has hurt.

Alvarez only UFC fight to date was a decision loss to Donald Cerrone in September 2014.

Neither man can afford a loss and stay in title contention in arguably the most competitive division in the entire sport.

Both can wrestle and can strike, well-rounded fighters. An even fight all-around.

Prediction: Melendez by decision

Other thoughts on the UFC 188 fight card:

-The hype machine for Kelvin Gastelum is about to get a jolt with a potential win over Nate Marquardt. Gastelum, only 23 years old, has been pegged as the next prodigy to become a potential champion. The welterweight won his first 10 fights but suffered his first loss to highly-regarded Tyron Woodley back in January. Gastelum showed flashes of strong form but showed that he’s not a championship contender yet. A major factor was Gastelum’s horrendous weight cut which saw him come in nine pounds over the weight limit. A solid win on Saturday over veteran Marquardt in a middleweight bout can get him back on track.

If Gastelum can get the win, he’s stating that he wants to return to welterweight. His body type looks like he can handle the weight cut down but he’ll have to be careful in the future. It reminds me of Cormier when he was at heavyweight due to weight cut struggles during his wrestling career. Cormier, despite being a smaller heavyweight, was able to win fights in the bigger division but his fate has been to be a light heavyweight as evidence by his current championship.

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